Back in November, we discussed how conference realignment and the Pac-12’s fall could lead to conferences like the Big Ten and SEC dominating this year’s NCAA Women’s Tournament selection process.
So far, that’s been exactly the case. With just under two months until Selection Sunday, the Big Ten has 12 teams in the projected field, with the SEC (10) and ACC (nine) not far behind.
This puts multiple conferences in position to break the record for most teams from a single conference in the NCAA Tournament. That mark currently stands at nine, by both the 2011 Big East and 2016 SEC.
At the moment, 34 of the 37 at-large bids are going to just four conferences (Big Ten, ACC, SEC and Big 12). The Big East (three) and Ivy League (two) are the only other conferences with multiple teams in the field.
This trend is true at the top, as well. The SEC is holding six of the top-16 overall seeds in these projections, with the Big Ten (four), ACC (three) and Big 12 (two) each snagging multiple hosting spots as well.
The other major change to this year’s Bracketology is the selection committee’s adoption of the Quadrant System used by the men’s committee since the 2017-18 season.
Instead of NET top-25, top-50 and top-100 records being used as talking points to discuss a team’s quality wins, games will now be sorted into four quadrants based on both the opponent’s NET ranking and game location.
Here is the definition for each quadrant in the women’s game.
Quadrant 1: Home (NET 1-25), neutral (NET 1-35), road (NET 1-45)
Quadrant 2: Home (NET 26-55), neutral (NET 36-65), road (NET 46-80)
Quadrant 3: Home (NET 56-90), neutral (NET 66-105), road (NET 81-130)
Quadrant 4: Home (NET 91+), neutral (NET 106+), road (NET 131+)
This is a welcome change that will more accurately reflect the quality of a team’s resume.
If it feels a bit complicated, here’s the cheat sheet version. Teams want to win as many Quadrant 1 and 2 games as possible while avoiding losses in Quadrants 3 and 4. If your team can do that, they’ll be Dancing in due time.
**Bracketology uses games played through Jan. 16
No. 1 seeds
*UCLA (17-0, 6-0 Big Ten): NET 4, SOS 47
UCLA is one of three remaining undefeated teams but the only one projected to be a No. 1 seed. Let’s use the quadrant system to explain part of the reason why. The Bruins have four Quad-1 wins. LSU has three and Ohio State has just one.
But going even deeper, UCLA has a 15-point win over South Carolina. It’s easily the best win by any team this season, and it’s the Gamecocks’ only loss over the last two years. It’s this crowning achievement setting the Bruins’ resume apart from the field.
*South Carolina (17-1, 5-0 SEC): NET 1, SOS 1
The reigning national champions never back down from a fight, and their gauntlet of a non-conference schedule plus dominance so far in SEC play has left the Gamecocks with seven Quad-1 wins, two more than any team in the nation.
It’s enough to keep Dawn Staley’s team in the conversation for the top overall seed, even with the loss to UCLA. They’ll be continually tested and are playing both Oklahoma and LSU within the next week.
USC (16-1, 6-0 Big Ten): NET 6, SOS 10
Congratulations to the Big Ten: newcomers UCLA and USC have both been as good as advertised, if not better. Led by the terrifying one-two punch of JuJu Watkins and Kiki Iriafen, USC has won 12 straight games since a loss to Notre Dame and is comfortably a No. 1 seed at this stage in the season.
*Notre Dame (15-2, 6-0 ACC): NET 7, SOS 3
And speaking of the Irish, Notre Dame rounds out the No. 1 seeds. Undefeated on American soil and with better top wins (USC, Texas, UConn) than anyone in the country, Niele Ivey’s team has proven it has an “A-game” capable of winning a national championship.
Having someone in the top-five nationally in each of the major statistics (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks per game) means there are matchup nightmares all over the court.
No. 2 seeds
LSU (19-0, 4-0 SEC): NET 10, SOS 86
LSU has been a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament in each of Kim Mulkey’s first three seasons as coach. In each of the past two years, the Tigers were in contention for a No. 1 seed but needed a signature win against South Carolina to really make the push.
It’s a new year, and LSU remains as strong as ever. Can the Tigers finally slay the dragon? LSU is 0-4 against South Carolina under Mulkey, but three of those games were decided by seven points or fewer.
Texas (17-2, 4-1 SEC): NET 2, SOS 9
The Longhorns have only lost to No. 1 seeds in South Carolina and Notre Dame, but being a No. 1 seed like they were last season requires winning some of those games. In a 67-50 loss at South Carolina last week, no Texas starter scored in double figures, and the team shot just 28% from the field, its worst performance since … the 2021 Elite 8 against South Carolina.
*UConn (16-2, 7-0 Big East): NET 3, SOS 17
Paige Bueckers returned from a two-game absence due to a knee injury Wednesday against St. John’s. The Huskies led by 15 after the first quarter and coasted. Bueckers scored 12 points on just seven shot attempts. It’s been a frustrating few years for UConn — always in contention but falling a bit short. The Huskies will need to be fully healthy to have a chance at going all the way.
Ohio State (17-0, 6-0 Big Ten): NET 11, SOS 102
I understand this might seem like a strange place for an undefeated Big Ten team to be, but the committee will be looking at overall resumes, not just win-loss records. A win at Michigan is nice, but it pales in comparison to the kinds of victories other top teams sport. The Buckeyes are currently slated to play seven more Quad-1 games in the regular season.
No. 3 seeds
TCU (18-1, 6-0 Big 12): NET 8, SOS 88
It appears this season’s Big 12 will be won by a team wearing purple. TCU gets the edge over Kansas State in the Bracketology due to the strength of its win against Notre Dame and because its loss (South Carolina) is better than the Wildcats’ (Duke).
TCU’s last regular-season conference title came in 2010, and it hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since. The latter drought will be broken this season.
*Kansas State (18-1, 6-0 Big 12): NET 5, SOS 100
No team in Division I has a better scoring margin than Kansas State at +32.2. Each of the Wildcats’ 18 wins this season have come by at least 15 points, making their 11-point loss against Duke an outlier 26 points worse than any other game. That streak could continue for a little while — just one of the team’s next four opponents (11-seed Iowa State) is a projected NCAA Tournament team.
Maryland (16-1, 6-1 Big Ten): NET 18, SOS 44
Is Maryland a team capable of making a run to the Final Four? We’ll find out over the ten days, as the Terps face Texas, Ohio State and UCLA in succession. Those three teams, all either No. 1 or No. 2 seeds, have a combined record of 51-2.
They are, of course, also coming off a win against a Minnesota team that entered that game at 16-1. At this stage of the season, a stretch like this is almost unbelievable.
Kentucky (15-1, 4-0 SEC): NET 17, SOS 56
The Kenny Brooks era in Lexington is starting off with a bang. Still undefeated in SEC play, Kentucky is on the path toward one of its best seasons in program history. And with at least 20 points and nine assists in four of her last five games, orchestrator supreme Georgia Amoore is in peak form. However, we’re still weeks away from this team’s biggest tests.
No. 4 seeds
Duke (14-4, 5-1 ACC): NET 9, SOS 4
In a 72-38 steamrolling of a California team that may have entered the game as a possible top-four seed, Toby Fournier (23 points) and Ashlon Jackson (16) outscored the Golden Bears by themselves. It was the team’s second-largest win over an AP top 25 team in the last 10 years. With the No. 4 strength of schedule in the country, Duke has great quality wins, but has also four losses taking them down a notch.
North Carolina (16-3, 4-2 ACC): NET 13, SOS 19
The 33 points UNC allowed to SMU on Thursday night were its fewest allowed in a conference game since 2007 against Georgia Tech. One of the tougher defenses in the country, the Tar Heels have allowed over 60 points just four times, including in each of their three losses.
Oklahoma (15-3, 3-2 SEC): NET 14, SOS 16
Right now, Oklahoma sports one of the more interesting resumes. The Sooners have a 4-3 record in Quad-1 games but have yet to face a Quad-2 opponent. They play at a rapid pace and are near the top of the country in both points per game and rebound margin. We’ll see if South Carolina can slow the game down Sunday.
Alabama (16-3, 3-2 SEC): NET 19, SOS 21
The Crimson Tide were within five of South Carolina on Thursday in the fourth quarter before the Gamecocks closed on a 20-7 run, leading to a somewhat deceptive 76-58 final score. It was Alabama’s second loss in three games (also against Texas), but with only a game at Arkansas on the schedule in the next week, the Crimson Tide should be able to bounce back without much trouble.
